March 30th,
2006
Today didn’t
turn out to be all that we had hoped for, but it did turn
out to be a fun first chase of the season. Today I chased
with Eric Nguyen and
Bob
Fritchie. Eric and I left the Dallas area around 6:30PM
on the 29th and headed for Norman, OK where we picked up
Bob. We arrived in Salina, KS around 1AM where we got a
little bit of sleep and then woke up at 8AM to look at data.
The SPC had put out a moderate risk, and all the models
seemed to look pretty good. We focused on the cold core /
surface low which appeared that it was going to ride the
Nebraska / Kansas border. We left Salina at 9:30AM right as
a Tornado Watch was issued for Eastern Kansas, Oklahoma and
SE Nebraska. We drove North on 81 until we hit Belleville
and we parked just West of the Republican River keeping an
eye on the radar and watching the conditions. Storms began
firing around 11:30AM. We went a little further West on
Highway 36 to Mankato and then saw a storm firing near
Concordia. We blasted South to intercept this storm and
ended up driving through a good amount of nickel sized hail
and torrential rains. By this time the cluster storms began
to gather and go more linear. We looked to our South and saw
a very dense core (Which by this time was now Tornado
Warned) so we went to check it out. We began to get about
egg sized hail and saw some interesting, tight, organized
rotation just to our South. We stopped and let it cross the
road right in front of us. The rain and winds on the surface
were pretty strong, so even if there was a tornado it would
have been extremely difficult to see any type of movement on
the ground. The rain bands were getting sucked into the
rotation. We followed the storm a little until everything
began to go linear. At this time we were just West of Topeka
and we began to head South to get dinner before heading
home. Right before we went in to eat we noticed there was a
lot of convection on the tail end of this storm / outflowish
boundary. The winds picked up from the NW which could have
been some sort of RFD and we noticed a good amount of lower
level rotation. The rotation then slowed down dramatically
and disappeared. We went and ate underneath some bubbling
mammatus and ran into
Amos Magliocco just outside of El Dorado. We all drove
home talking on the radio, and to make such a day complete,
Amos ended up with a flat tire. The day could have been a
lot better, especially if we had some sort of forcing
mechanism like the surface low push through. It was still a
lot of fun, and it is just the beginning of what looks to be
an active season...
SPC DAY 1 FORECAST DISCUSSION
SPC AC 301252
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006
VALID 301300Z - 311200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SETUP TODAY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. VIGOROUS TROUGH NOW CROSSING CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
SWING RAPIDLY EWD AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER ERN
CO WILL TRACK ENEWD TO ERN NEB THIS EVENING. LOW WILL CONTINUE
DEEPENING TONIGHT AS IT HEADS INTO UPR MS VALLEY.
DRY LINE CURRENTLY WRN KS SWD INTO OK/TX PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT EWD BY
MID DAY INTO CENTRAL KS AND WRN OK. A VERY STRONG MID/UPR JET MAX
DRIVES EWD FROM SRN ROCKIES TO ALONG OK/KS BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COUPLED WITH A 50KT LLJ PROVIDES VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.
|
ONLY VIDEO CAPTURES AND VIDEO AVAILABLE FOR NOW...
WILL UPDATE WHEN STILL PRINTS ARE AVAILABLE
CHECK BACK LATER FOR UPDATES...
Left:
Day 1 Outlook, Right: Satellite Grab
Left: Winds, Right: Surface Map before the chase
Left: Vorticity model, Threat Net Video Capture
Left: Threat Net Grab #2, Hail core with Egg sized hail
Left: Growing tower with Anvil, Rain-Free base
Left: Chase video highlight, Right: Chase map for Today
April 24th,
2006
Today's setup
looked pretty good.
Aaron Hughes, Leslie Giles and I started our 600 mile
expedition by leaving the Dallas Metroplex and heading North
towards Oklahoma around 6:30AM. We arrived in Thackerville,
OK around 8:30AM and picked up
Jeremy Wilson.
Today we had 2 different targets; the first was Kingfisher,
the other was in Lawton, Oklahoma. We arrived in Oklahoma
City around 11:30AM and got lunch and looked at data. At
this time, we fired up the Mobile Threat Net and started
looking at winds, dewpoint, surface observations, and other
data. Around 12:30PM we chose to head towards Kingfisher. We
went West on I40, then North on 81 passing through El Reno.
We stopped in Okarche and waited for about an hour gathering
more data. We watched satellite and TV trucks pass us by
heading towards Kingfisher. Echo tops and radar began to
show storms firing North, near Hennessey and moving to the
East towards Stillwater. We raced North into Hennessey and
went East on 51 where we intercepted the storm with some
small hail and weak low level rotation. We ran into
Chris Caldwell
and sat on 51 watching the storm move East around 20MPH. The
storm really didn't produce much and we decided to race to
our second target in Lawton. The TV stations were reporting
that storms would fire within the next couple of hours just
South West of Oklahoma City. We passed through El Reno again
(which would later to turn out to be the hot spot of the
day), and then through Chickasha where we topped off with
gas. As we left Chickasha storms began to explode in Lawton
with golf ball size hail shortly after initiation. We
continued South West on the I44 turnpike into Lawton where
we intercepted a beautiful supercell. At this time tornadoes
were being reported in El Reno and our storm was just
beginning to get its act together. The storm had an amazing
lowering with a little rotation. We sat on a hill on highway
18 and began to shoot video and stills towards the North
West. The lightning began to pick up, with one bolt hitting
less than a mile away sounding like a cannon being fired
while the camera was recording. The storm had a beautiful
wall cloud, which began to organize and rotate quite well.
The storm dropped a couple of needle funnels, but never did
produce before getting undercut and decaying.
Scott Peake passed
us and we followed storms that were forming to our South.
The storm went outflow dominant and all of the action
shifted further to the North East and far South near Wichita
Falls, Texas. As we tracked the storm to our South we began
to get some amazing night time lightning shots. There was
still a little bit of lower storm rotation, but nothing too
exciting. We ran into Eric
Nguyen and took some night-time lightning photography
and videography. We all then headed back South on I35 to
head home talking on the radios. Long day, no tornado, lots
of miles, but it was fun to hang out with friends, meet new
ones, and at times exciting to share our passion for severe
weather and nature itself.
SPC DAY 1 FORECAST DISCUSSION
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...
...GREAT PLAINS/MID-MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN STATES IS FORECAST TO EJECT
ENEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY. A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL NOSE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA
SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS NWD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES EAST OF THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. STRONG
INSTABILITY...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
SUPERCELLS IN NCNTRL AND NERN OK WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN IN THE EARLY EVENING.
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STILL PICTURES WILL BE ADDED SOON WHEN AVAILABLE....
Left:
Threat Net showing Storm Initiation, Right: Radar / Echo
Tops
Left: Threat Net showing Rotation, Right: Time of rotating
wall cloud
Left:
Forecast sounding out of Ponca City, Right: SPC MCD
Left: SPC Day 1 Forecast, Right: SPC Tornado Outlook
VIDEO
GRABS: Left: Us with Chris Caldwell, Right: Chris
Caldwell's Chase Durango
VIDEO GRABS: Left: SW of El Reno a wannabe rain wrapped
tornado , Right: Wall Cloud
VIDEO GRABS: Left: Sitting on a hill, Right: Scott, Leslie
and Aaron observing lightning
Left: Night-Time
Lowering video grab, Right: VIDEO of the 04-24-06 Chase
May 9th,
2006
Today looked
very marginal and the probability of busting and not seeing
anything was very high; however, I would end up intercepting
the best night-time tornado I have ever seen. Tim Carroll,
Leslie Giles, and I left Dallas at 10AM and headed for
Central Oklahoma. When we arrived at the Oklahoma border, we
fired up the Threat Net and downloaded some data off the
internet to redefine our target area. We were worried that
the cap wasn't going to break, however there were -14LI's
with 4000 CAPE in SE Oklahoma so we decided that just South
of McAlester, Oklahoma would be a good target. We took 82E
to 75N and stopped in Atoka. At this time it looked like the
cap was eroding and we noticed some TCu forming to our West.
After some nowcasting help, since we were out of internet
range, we traveled a little further to the North West into
Ada, OK. The threat net radar showed storms exploding just
North of McAlester riding along I40. We raced North on 75
and saw some amazing rotation. The storm went Tornado Warned
and the rotation would strengthen, then die as we let it
pass the highway behind us. We took a South option so we
could jump on another highway and follow it East. While
following it East we got hit with some quarter sized hail
and very strong surface winds, possibly RFD. By this time it
was around 8:30PM, so we headed back South towards Dallas.
About 9:30PM the radar began to show precipitation breaking
out in North Texas, where conditions for tornadoes were
looking really good. We raced back South as fast as we
legally could and got to Van Alstyne in Grayson County about
10PM. I fueled up, and began to get quarter sized hail as
this now very intense supercell gained strength and roared
towards Anna, Texas. I reported the hail to the National
Weather Service, and then continued South and approached the
intersection of FM455 and 75 at about 10:10PM. At this time
the National Weather Service had issued a Tornado Warning
for the storm. I pulled over South of FM455 and watched the
rotation pass behind us and off to the North East. The wall
cloud was absolutely beautiful, and the storm structure was
amazing. As the storm approached Anna, we noticed power
flashes on the ground. I reported this on the Collin County
SKYWARN net, and a few lightning flashes later there was a
very nice tube tornado on the ground. At my location, the
wind was completely still, dry and no precipitation was
falling whatsoever. This tornado grew into a large elephant
trunk tornado before weakening and lifting back up into the
wall cloud. Moments later the tornado dropped once again,
this time in the town of Westminster, Texas. The tornado was
now a very large cone tornado doing extensive F3 damage to
the local communities. There was major damage in the Town of
Westminster, as well as many injuries and fatalities.
Unfortunately the town was unaware of the ongoing severe
weather and did not have warning sirens, therefore very few
citizens were aware of the dangerous night-time storm that
was approaching. Today had a very large bust potential, but
I managed to get to the right spot at the right time and
intercept this very large tornado. It was a great chase;
however, later learning about the fatalities and the number
of injuries and the extensive damage makes enjoying today
extremely difficult. As with many others, this will be a day
I will never forget and my heart goes out to those who were
effected by this storm....
STILL PICTURES WILL BE ADDED SOON....
IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN OBTAINING THIS VIDEO FOOTAGE PLEASE
VISIT THE
MEDIA CENTER
Left:
Mesoscale Discussion concerning initiation, Right: McAlester
Tornado radar
Left: Threat Net showing McAlester storm, Right: Radar image
of Westminster provided by
Joseph Tyree
Left and Right: Radar images of the Westminster Tornado
provided by Joseph
Tyree
Left:
Mobile Threat Net Radar image of Westminster Tornado, Right:
Another Radar Image
Left: Threat Net Radar
Image, Right: Hail North of Anna, TX
Left: Rotation near McAlester, Right: Power flash in Anna
TX, the first signs of the Tornado
Left and Right: Westminster Tornado
Left and Right: Westminster Tornado
Left: Westminster Tornado Video
June 7th,
2006
Today's target
was Southeast Wyoming. Nothing significant was observed.
June 8th,
2006
Today Eric
Nguyen, Scott Blair, his fiancé and I left our hotel in
Gillette, Wyoming to head towards our target area around
Broadus and Miles City Montana. When we got to Broadus we
stopped to get data and look for souvenirs. After getting
some data we headed West on Interstate 212 towards Crown
Agency. We passed through Ashland, Lame Deer and Busby. We
had some amazing views of the countryside as we passed
through Custer National Forest and the Northern Cheyenne
Indian Reservation. At this time an awesome supercell had
formed just to our South West. The structure was amazing.
The rotation in the cell got stronger and it grew beautiful
striations. The storm attempted to form a wall cloud a few
different times and was rotating anti-cyclonically. The
storm was moving to the NNE and eventually crossed I212 and
approached Colstrip. We chose to follow it so we shot back
East on I212. We came to the conclusion that in all
likelihood we probably wouldn't catch up to it. We found a
dirt road that would cut off about 30 minutes of our
drive-time so we took it. We passed many deer, elk and
cattle as we took this one lane dirt road towards Volberg.
After we got back to civilization and paved roads the Mobile
Threat Net showed that the storm had decayed; however,
supercell number 2 was just to its South West and
intensifying. We went North in Highway 59 and pulled into
the town of Beebe. We fueled up and then shot back South to
find a hill as the storm approached. The storm was
absolutely beautiful as the storm passed over the hills and
rocky landscape. The storm had amazing structure and scud
formed and began to approach the storm base. This formed a
rock solid wall cloud and began to rotate. We watched this
lowering for about 15 minutes before the rotation lost
strength and the storm got undercut. The hail core on the
storm looked fairly intense so we dove South and ventured
into the core. We began to get some heavy rainfall and then
the hail started. The hail grew to 2.5 inches in diameter.
This over golf ball sized hail pelted the cars and sounded
like tennis balls hitting the roof. The hail just got larger
and for a moment we felt we would lose or crack the
windshield. It began to cover the ground and you could feel
the impact in your chest as it hit the vehicle. The hail was
white and soft, so we didn't lose the windshield but any
larger and harder probably would have taken the windshield.
One stone shattered as it came through the window and landed
in my lap. After the hail ceased and the rain grew less
intense we went outside the vehicles to measure the hail
size and take photographs. We then went North towards Miles
City, Montana to stay the night. As we were heading north
Supercell number 3 formed right behind us. Other than storm
number 1, storm 3 was really impressive. It was a beautiful
rotating LP supercell with gorgeous striations. The storm
base was amazing and from a distance this storm had to have
been absolutely amazing. We noticed some scud rising and
rotating around the base, but the storm didn't produce more
than that. We sat through pea to marble sized hail and
intense rain then made our way towards Miles City to stay
the night. After we arrived at our hotel I edited some video
for the Network and local TV stations while Scott called in
our hail reports to the National Weather Service. We ended
the night watching video and preparing for tomorrows chase
in Wyoming. Amazing day...
SPC DAY 1
FORECAST DISCUSSION
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT THU JUN 08 2006
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
AT THE SURFACE...STRENGTHENING FRONT FROM MT ESE INTO SRN SD/IA
SHOULD REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY OR DRIFT SLIGHTLY SW AS LEE
LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER ERN WY/WRN NEB. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH W
CST TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE NRN RCKYS BY LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE E ACROSS MT OVERNIGHT. IN THE EAST...A COMPARATIVELY
WEAKER FRONT SHOULD REDEVELOP EAST OF THE CNTRL/SRN APLCNS...
EXTENDING S FROM A WEAK LOW IN MD.
...NRN RCKYS/NRN HI PLNS...
PRESENCE OF 40+ KT DEEP SW TO WLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND. SURFACE PATTERN
AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF STORMS SUGGEST FAIRLY RAPID EVOLUTION INTO
CLUSTERS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS MAINTAINING A THREAT FOR
HAIL/HIGH WIND. A LIMITED THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO...MOST LIKELY IN S CNTRL/SE MT...WHERE STORMS MAY BE
MOST LIKELY TO FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH STALLING SURFACE FRONT.
..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 06/08/2006
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STILL PICTURES WILL BE ADDED SOON...
Left:
Day 1 Outlook, Right: Tornado Outlook
Left: Surface Map, Right: Visible Satellite
Left: Mammatus Capture, Beavers Tail Capture
Left:
LP Storm Base, Right: Wall cloud Capture
Left and Right: Wall Cloud Video Captures
Left: Wall Cloud, Right: Hail
Left and Right: Hail video captures
Left: Hail, Right: Lightning Videocapture
Left: VIDEO of the 06-08-06 Chase
June 9th,
2006
Eric Nguyen,
Scott Blair, his fiancé and I observed a few strong cells in
Southeast Wyoming into Northwest Nebraska. We observed small
hail, 52 MPH outflow wind gusts and brief weak storm
circulation. The initial storm bowed out and produced some
nice shelf clouds, strong winds, dangerous lightning, and
heavy downpours. The storms eventually became clustered.
Nothing significant was observed.
Left: Lightning Video Capture
June 10th,
2006
Scott Blair, his
fiancé, Eric Nguyen and I observed a couple high based
funnel clouds as well as a few wall clouds today. We started
the day in Scotts Bluff, Nebraska. We ate breakfast / lunch
and noticed a nice cell with a beautiful anvil just to our
Southwest by 30 miles. We headed that way and observed some
amazing storm structure. The road network was pretty bad and
we ended up getting tuck on multiple dead end and closed
roads. We ended up sitting on a dirt road waiting for the
storm to get closer to us. The storm began rotating and
formed a wall cloud while the vault shot straight up. The
storm attempted to form a couple funnels before it lost its
intensity. We tried to race back East through Scotts Bluff
to observe the structure better; however, traffic in town
prevented us from doing so. We took CR L East into Baxter
staying ahead of the storm hoping it would get its act back
together. We went North on Highland and then back East again
on CR A and then took US 385 North. By this time another
storm with 68 DBZ was forming and had a Tornado Warning on
it. According to Mobile Threat Net, the storm had strong
shear on it and was moving to the Northeast. We then went
East running parallel to the storm on State Road 2 through
Alliance, Lakeside, Ellsworth and Bingham. We began to see a
rotating wall cloud through the core on the Southern end of
the storm. To try to get better position we dove South from
Ashby on a small one lane farm road. We managed to get to
the far Southern part of the core as the high based wall
cloud attempted to drop down a couple of funnels. The wall
cloud passed right in front of us and then we got hit by the
storm core. We observed copious amounts of rain and 54 MPH
winds but we didn't receive any hail. We tried to continue
South to US 26; however, our chase came to an abrupt end
when the farm road turned into a one lane muddy, sandy mess.
The structure today was amazing, and even though there
wasn't a visible tornado I can settle for great Nebraska
structure to be the end of my season. Hopefully there will
be a good late spring setup or good fall setup.
SPC DAY 1
FORECAST DISCUSSION
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN\CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MODELS IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN INCREASING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF ERN WY AND FAR SERN MT DURING THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN ID. SURFACE
LOW OVER N-CENTRAL WY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE
WY/MT/SD BORDER REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGH
TRAILING SWD ACROSS FAR ERN WY. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID
50S ATTM...THOUGH MIXING DUE TO STRONG HEATING MAY DROP THESE VALUES
INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY / MLCAPE
AROUND 1500 JKG-1 / WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO ERN WY
WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION. THEREFORE...INCREASED DEEP ASCENT AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER ERN WY/SERN MT. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
INDICATE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES WITH 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 0-1 K SRH IN EXCESS OF 100
M2/S2...ESPECIALLY IN FAR E-CENTRAL WY/WRN NEB PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES/CLUSTERS WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE MCS MOVING ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/10/2006
|
STILL PICTURES WILL BE ADDED SOON...
Left:
Tornado Outlook, Right: Hail Outlook
Left: Surface Map, Right: Visible Satellite
Left
and Right: Threat Net Radar Images
Left: Rain core wrapping around the wall cloud, Right:
Mammatus
Left and Right: Rotating storm base video captures
Left and Right: Rotating storm base video captures
Left: End of chase rainbow, Right: Chase VIDEO